The current week has seen the continuation of the Ukrainian counteroffensive and an attempted mutiny in Russia by PMC “Wagner’s” head Prigozhin.
Is the latter influencing the former, and what is the pace of the Ukrainian counteroffensive?
UkraineWorld asked Mykhailo Samus, Military Expert, and Deputy Director for international affairs at the Army, Conversion and Disarmament Research Center.
- Wagner's attempted "mutiny" had an impact on the internal situation in Russia and, consequently, on the events of the war.
- PMC "Wagner" is, in fact, a project of the special services of Russia. Russian oligarchs and representatives of the president’s administration joined forces to develop the project. Therefore, Prigozhin is a figure created by these forces.
- About six months ago, Prigozhin began to play a political role. In light of concerns regarding Putin’s rule, those responsible for creating this project decided the time had come to bring about change inside Russia.
- The attempted mutiny was likely aimed at demonstrating to Putin that he was losing control over the state. It revealed that such forces can take Moscow if they so wish. However, Prigozhin was sacrificed for this, becoming a traitor for those who supported his revolt, because he abandoned announced plans.
- From Ukraine’s point of view, these moments are positive. They indicate that Russia is entering a “failed state” stage and is struggling to maintain internal control. Russia’s ability to conduct military operations under such conditions may be significantly reduced. Perhaps soon to be seen on the front. Not only the motivation of the Russian troops is likely to wane, but the goals of their “military operation” may also shift.
- Regarding the pace Ukraine’s counteroffensive, it cannot be estimated. Except for the Ukrainian military command, no one knows what pace is correct and how the operations should be conducted. Speculations on this matter are unacceptable because the military has its own understanding of time and pace.
- We haven’t seen similar operations of such a scale since WWII. That’s why its history is being written on the ground. And no experts know what course of action should be taken.
ANASTASIIA HERASYMCHUK, ANALYST AND JOURNALIST AT UKRAINEWORLD
Mykhailo Samus, Military Expert, and Deputy Director for international affairs at the Army, Conversion and Disarmament Research Center
