Ukraine Creates a New Geography of War

May 14, 2026
Spring 2026 marks a significant expansion of Ukraine's long-range campaign into Russian territory.
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Ukrainian strikes deep into Russian territory are no longer symbolic: they impact military logistics, aviation, air defence, production, and change the message that the Kremlin so often manipulates - the sense of security in Russia. Ukraine is systematically shifting the war into Russian rear areas. ( Read more in our analysis How Ukraine Is Turning Russia's Distance Into Vulnerability

Let's closely examine the course of these strikes from the beginning of 2026 until May 9, the day the proposed ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine began (Putin, through US mediation, proposed a ceasefire, which Trump announced along with a POW exchange, Ukraine later confirmed the ceasefire).

In January 2026, Ukraine ramped up strikes on Russian energy, logistics and fuel facilities, signalling a systematic long-range campaign to complicate Russia's rear operations and raise costs for Moscow. Strikes pushed Russia to redirect resources in order to defend rear infrastructure, disperse air defences, and secure energy and logistics sites away from the front.

In February 2026, Ukraine's strikes reached deeper into Russian territory (800-1700 km) and hit more types of targets. The main focus was on energy infrastructure, but Kyiv also begins regular strikes on defence industry targets producing parts for weapons, strikes became more regular and were targeted to a wider area.

In March 2026, Ukraine's focus shifted to Russia's war economy: oil refineries, pipelines, ports on the Black Sea and in the Baltic, and chemical plants. Strikes are less isolated and more like a systematic campaign that affects the stability of production cycles, export routes and logistics in Russia's energy sector.

In April-May 2026, Ukraine turned the deep-strikes campaign on a main level -multi-layered pressure on Russia's critical infrastructure. Energy, defence industry and logistics systems are struck simultaneously - instead of one-time damage, repeated strikes prevent recovery and create ongoing disruption. 

The list below illustrates how Ukraine systematically expanded its long-range campaign across Russian territory. Distances are approximate and may refer to either straight-line distance or the publicly cited strike range estimated by Ukrainian officials.

April 2

Location: Ufa, Republic of Bashkortostan, Russia

Distance from Ukraine: ~1,300-1,500 km

Target: Bashneft-Novoil oil refinery (Rosneft)


April 4

Location: Tolyatti, Samara Oblast, Russia

Distance from Ukraine: ~750-1,000 km

Target: KuibyshevAzot chemical plant + Tolyattikauchuk petrochemical plant (simultaneous strike on two facilities)


April 5

Location: Kstovo, Nizhny Novgorod Oblast, Russia

Distance from Ukraine: ~800 km

Target: Lukoil-Nizhegorodnefteorgsintez oil refinery

Location: Primorsk, Leningrad Oblast, Russia

Distance from Ukraine: ~900-1,000 km

Target: Oil pipeline infrastructure near Primorsk Baltic export terminal


 April 6

Location: Novorossiysk, Krasnodar Krai, Russia

Distance from Ukraine: ~300-600 km

Target: Sheskharis oil terminal (Transneft)

Location: Rossosh, Voronezh Oblast, Russia

Distance from Ukraine: ~50-130 km

Target: Minudobreniya chemical plant (ammonium nitrate, nitric acid, ammonia production.


 April 7

Location: Ust-Luga, Leningrad Oblast, Russia

Distance from Ukraine: ~1,000 km

Target: Transneft-Baltika oil export terminal - storage tanks and port infrastructure.


 April 10

Location: Volgograd-Tikhoretsk pipeline corridor, Volgograd Oblast, Russia

Distance from Ukraine: ~600-650 km

Target: Main oil product pipeline - diesel artery to southern Russia and Black Sea region

Location: Kazan, Republic of Tatarstan, Russia

Distance from Ukraine: ~1,100-1,200 km

Target: Industrial / military-linked infrastructure


 April 11

Location: Krymskaya pumping station, Krasnodar Krai, Russia

Distance from Ukraine: ~600 km

Target: Chernomortransneft oil pumping station (Tikhoretsk-Novorossiysk pipeline routes I-III)


April 15

Location: Sterlitamak, Republic of Bashkortostan, Russia

Distance from Ukraine: ~1,300-1,500 km

Target: Sterlitamak Petrochemical Plant (aviation fuel, jet fuel additives, synthetic rubber production)


 April 16

Location: Tuapse, Krasnodar Krai, Russia (Strike 1 of 4)

Distance from Ukraine: ~350-500 km

Officially cited range: ~1,500 km

Target: Tuapse Oil Refinery + marine terminal (Rosneft)

 April 17-18

Location: Novokuybyshevsk + Syzran, Samara Oblast, Russia

Distance from Ukraine: ~1,000-1,100 km

Target: Novokuybyshevsk oil refinery + Syzran oil refinery (both Rosneft) - simultaneous strikes

Location: Tikhoretsk district, Krasnodar Krai, Russia

Distance from Ukraine: ~550 km

Target: Tikhoretsk oil pumping station (Transneft pipeline node)


 April 19

Location: Taganrog, Rostov Oblast, Russia

Distance from Ukraine: ~220-250 km

Target: Atlant Aero UAV production plant - Molniya strike drones, Orion UAV components


April 20

Location: Tuapse, Krasnodar Krai, Russia (Strike 2 of 4)

Distance from Ukraine: ~350-500 km

Officially cited range: ~1,500 km

Target: Tuapse Oil Refinery + port infrastructure (Rosneft)


April 23

Location: Kstovo district, Nizhny Novgorod Oblast, Russia

Distance from Ukraine: ~800 km

Target: Gorky oil pumping station (Transneft-Verkhnyaya Volga pipeline system)

Location: Novokuybyshevsk, Samara Oblast, Russia

Distance from Ukraine: ~1,000-1,100 km

Target: Novokuybyshevsk Petrochemical Company - MTBE production unit, fuel additives (Rosneft)


  April 25

Location: Shagol airfield, Chelyabinsk Oblast, Russia

Distance from Ukraine: ~1,600-1,700 km

Target: probable damage 2× Su-57 stealth fighters + 1× Su-34 strike aircraft + 1 unidentified aircraft


 April 26

Location: Yaroslavl, Yaroslavl Oblast, Russia

Distance from Ukraine: ~900-1,000 km

Target: Slavneft-YANOS oil refinery (~15 million tons/year processing capacity)

Location: Cherepovets, Vologda Oblast, Russia

Distance from Ukraine: ~1,000-1,100 km

Target: Apatit chemical plant (PhosAgro Group) - Ammonia-3 nitrogen complex, high-pressure sulfuric acid pipeline


 April 28

Location: Tuapse, Krasnodar Krai, Russia (Strike 3 of 4)

Distance from Ukraine: ~350-500 km

Officially cited range: ~1500 km

Target: Tuapse Oil Refinery (Rosneft)


 April 29

Location: Orsk, Orenburg Oblast, Russia

Distance from Ukraine: ~1,300-1,500 km

Target: Orsknefteorgsintez oil refinery - one of Russia's largest


April 30

Location: Perm, Perm Krai, Russia

Distance from Ukraine: ~1,500-1,600 km

Target: Lukoil-Permnefteorgsintez oil refinery (AVT-4 primary distillation unit) + Perm LPDS (Transneft pipeline dispatch station)

Location: Dzerzhinsk, Nizhny Novgorod Oblast, Russia

Distance from Ukraine: ~750-800 km

Target: Sverdlov Explosives Plant - a state defence enterprise producing artillery shells and industrial explosives


 May 1

Location: Tuapse, Krasnodar Krai, Russia (Strike 4 of 4)

Distance from Ukraine: ~350-500 km

Officially cited range: ~1,500 km

Target: Tuapse Oil Refinery + marine terminal (Rosneft)


 May 3

Location: Primorsk port, Leningrad Oblast, Russia

Distance from Ukraine: ~900-1,000 km

Target: Port, which is Russia's largest Baltic oil export hub, damaging a tanker and the infrastructure of the port.

Location: Novorossiysk, Krasnodar Krai, Russia

Distance from Ukraine:  ~300-600 km

Target: Oil Infrastructure: two shadow fleet oil tankers (near port entrance, Black Sea)


May 5

Location: Cheboksary, Chuvash Republic, Russia

Distance from Ukraine: ~1,200 km

Target: VNIIR-Progress defence electronics plant (navigation and guidance system components for missiles and UAVs)

Location: Kirishi, Leningrad Oblast, Russia

Distance from Ukraine: ~1,000-1,100 km

Target: KINEF oil refinery (Kirishinefteorgsintez - over 20 million tons/year, Russia's largest by capacity)


May 7

Location: Perm, Perm Krai, Russia

Distance from Ukraine: ~1,500-1,600 km

Target: Lukoil-Permnefteorgsintez oil refinery + Perm LPDS (Transneft)

Location: Naro-Fominsk, Moscow Oblast, Russia

Distance from Ukraine: ~500-550 km

Target: Nara military logistics complex (Russian Ministry of Defence supply base)

Location: Kaspiysk, Republic of Dagestan, Russia (Caspian Sea)

Distance from Ukraine: ~1,200-1,600 km

Target: Project 22800 Karakurt-class missile corvette (Kalibr cruise missile-capable) at naval base


May 8

Location: Grozny + Znamenskoye, Chechnya, Russia

Distance from Ukraine: ~1,300-1,400 km

Target: Khankala military base area (42nd Motor Rifle Division HQ) + FSB building (Znamenskoye)


As global oil prices surged amid escalating tensions in the Middle East, Russia was expected to benefit from increased export revenues.

However, Ukraine's repeated attacks on key oil infrastructure disrupted operations at major export hubs. Attacks on terminals in Ust-Luga, Primorsk and Novorossiysk may have cost Russia about $2.2 billion in lost revenue due to shutdowns and reduced exports, says Borys Dodonov of the Kyiv School of Economics. Also, recent refinery strikes are likely to worsen losses, with significant damage to Rosneft's Tuapse refinery requiring extensive reconstruction at a cost of up to $5 billion, according to The Washington Post.

As of March 25, at least 40% of Russia's oil export capacity is halted due to Ukrainian drone attacks, Reuters reports based on market data.

The key effects of Ukraine's long-range campaign in spring 2026 (which are still unfolding) do not mean temporary destruction, but also indicate the cumulative depletion of Russia's war machine, which directly affects the Kremlin's ability to wage war and to maintain stable supplies of fuel and ammunition.

 With significantly fewer resources, Ukraine forces Russia to consider where to use its air defence systems and divert resources to protect its rear infrastructure. 

Ukraine shows the world that Russia's monopoly on long-range strike capability can be broken, this way fundamentally changing the balance of power on the battlefield.

This publication was compiled with the support of the International Renaissance Foundation. It's content is the exclusive responsibility of the authors and does not necessarily reflect the views of the International Renaissance Foundation.

Iryna Kovalenko
Journalist at UkraineWorld